Thursday, October 05, 2006

Congressional Gay Cabal; A Statistical Analysis

Besides the multiple defenses of "I knew nothing/only a little and acted/everything and was asked not to act so I didn't," there's now the GOP strategy of the Gay Cabal covering up for Mark Foley (via ThinkProgress).
CBS News has learned that several other top Republican staffers who handled the Foley matter are also gay. Their role in this controversy has caused a firestorm among Republican conservatives who charge that a group of high-level gay Republican staffers were protecting a gay Republican congressman.
All I can say to that is, of course several staffers involved were also gay, it's a high statistical probability.

For decades, based on the Kinsey Report, it's been commonly believed that 10% of the population is gay. More recently, conservative religious groups dispute that percentage and claim a very low 1.1%. The Family Research Group's number is those who admit to having exclusively male partners in the past ten years. It's a ridiculous number since it excludes young people who have been sexually active less than ten years, people who have more recently come out of the closet, or those who experimented with heterosexuality or are more often bisexual. And it only references activity, not orientation or preference. It apparently also excludes women.

Still, it's a very difficult number to track because of the personal nature of the subject and the social stigmatization with concurrent societal punishment that often accompanies it. However, it may be fair to say that 1 - 2% of the population is openly and exclusively gay, leaving some unknown number in a more complicated category or closeted. The 1993 Janus Report puts the number of those who have had more than occasional homosexual relationships closer to Kinsey's numbers.

But what if I shoot a number straight out of my ass and double the Family Research Group's estimate? Say another 1.1% of the population are closeted and self-loathing gays. What political party is perfect for closeted, self-loathing gays who don't want the same human or civil rights afforded every other American? That's right, the Republican Party.

In 2004, when Kirk Fordham failed to inform Hastert of Foley's emails, but still begged Hastert to keep them a secret, 37.2% of American adults were self-identified Republicans. That's 10,468,878 people. If, say, 55% are men, and a generous (for the Republican Party) 1.1% of those men have had exclusively male partners for the past 10 years, then over 63,000 Republicans are openly and exclusively gay. But the Log Cabin Republicans only claim "thousands of members," not tens of thousands, so the Republican share of 1.1% must be much smaller, meaning the pool of closeted, self-loathing Republican gays must be much, much larger.

Suffice it to say, statistically speaking, it would be incomprehensible to think that, in every Republican scandal, there weren't several gay people involved. You can't swing a dead cat in the Republican Party without hitting a self-loathing gay.

The important admission here is that the Republican Party is full of cabals that cover up crimes for personal gain and to hold on to political power.

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